Climate scenario assessment

Nowadays, it's almost impossible to open a newspaper without encountering an article on 'sustainability'. Whether it's in the context of the financial services industry, the broader economy, or society as a whole, sustainability has become a critical issue. In recent years, it has gained significant traction and is now recognised as a necessity rather than just a trend.

Over the past decade, the focus on environmental issues has grown exponentially, resulting in various global commitments and initiatives aimed at transforming current institutional, economic, and financial models.

This training session focuses on Climate scenario assessments, which are critical for understanding the financial and strategic implications of climate change on a business. Participants will explore pathways for strategic decarbonisation and learn how to align their corporate strategies with climate goals, such as net-zero commitments. This course will guide participants in evaluating potential climate-related risks and opportunities using scenario-based approaches, which are vital tools in today’s rapidly evolving regulatory and environmental landscape.

By the end of this training, participants will:

• understand the fundamentals of climate scenario assessments and how they are used to evaluate potential climate impacts;
• gain skills to design and implement effective climate scenarios within their organisation;
• be able to apply scenario analysis to identify strategic decarbonation pathways for their sector;
• learn how to communicate the outcomes of these assessments to internal and external stakeholders.

• Introduction to climate scenario analysis
  • Overview of climate scenario analysis.
  • Importance in corporate strategy and risk management.
• Designing climate scenarios
  • Exploring different climate scenarios, such as 1.5°C and 2°C pathways.
  • Tools and methodologies used to model climate impacts.
• Sector-specific pathways to strategic decarbonisation
  • Evaluating specific decarbonisation strategies for key sectors (e.g., finance, energy, manufacturing).
  • Case studies of successful decarbonisation and mitigation strategies.
• Practical implementation
  • Identifying key variables affecting climate risk and aligning business strategy accordingly.
  • Best practices for reporting results in compliance with international standards (e.g., TCFD).

This training is coordinated by Pavel Kostyuchenko, Partner at PwC Luxembourg.

Pavel Kostyuchenko is a partner and Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, specialising in actuarial consulting and risk modelling for the financial sector with over 20 years of experience, including 17 years at PwC. He leads PwC Luxembourg's actuarial and risk modelling services practice and previously headed actuarial practices in PwC’s CEE offices in Asia. Pavel advises insurers and reinsurers on reserving, financial reporting, IFRS17, Solvency II, business planning, and acquisitions. He contributes to PwC’s global Actuary of the Future and Actuarial Modernisation initiatives and supports the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries on the profession’s future in overseas markets. His expertise includes risk capital frameworks, strategic asset allocation, and ALM, serving clients in insurance, asset management, and the public sector.